Crunching Soundrop’s April Track Numbers

Soundrop, the fantastic social music listening application for the Spotify platform, reported recently that they streamed 35 million tracks in April, 2012 (up from 15 million tracks in March). I was curious about the number and how it relates to the number of people using Soundrop so I did little number crunching and estimate that this equates to ~19.5K active Soundrop users who spend 3-4 hours / day in the application.

Assumptions:

  • 35 million tracks – I assume this is measured by Spotify and corresponds to the number of Spotify clients that stream a particular track as directed by the Soundrop application. In other words, if I’m in the Electronica room with 250 other listeners, each song played is counted as 250 tracks streamed.
  • Having filled large MP3 players to capacity, a reasonable ballpark estimate is 12K tracks is ~1 month’s worth of 24×7 music without a repeat. More detail on this later.
  • My guess (pure speculation actually) is that an average Soundrop user spends 3-4 hours / day in the application. I know it’s a lot more for me but I’m not sure how typical this is. So I’m being a bit more conservative.

Math:

30 (days/month) * 24 (hours/day) * 60 (minutes/hour) = 43.2K (minutes/month)

43.2K (minutes/month) / 3.5 (minutes/track) = ~12.3K (tracks/month)
(i.e. if you have 12.3K tracks of length 3.5 minutes (just an estimate based on my observation of averages) you’ve got ~1 month’s worth of 24×7 music without a repeat)

35M tracks / ~12.3K (tracks/month) = ~2800 (24×7 listeners)
(my guess is that your average Soundrop listener tunes in 3-4 hours/day – this is just an guess)

24 (listening hours/day) / 4 (active listener hours / user day) = 6 (users)
24 (listening hours/day) / 3 (active listener hours / user day) = 8  (users)
(i.e. for every 24-hour period, between 6 and 8 active listeners streaming 3-4 hours/day represent a single 24×7 listener – again a total SWAG)

~2800 (24×7 listeners) * 6 (users) = ~17K monthly users who tune in 4 hours / day on average
~2800 (24×7 listeners) * 8 (users) = ~22K monthly users who tune in 3 hours / day on average

May:

I just pulled out my calculator and added up the listener count displayed in all the public Soundrop listening rooms visible to me and see ~8K people actively listening right now. What will May’s track number be?

My SWAG is 120 million tracks will be streamed in May, 2012.

It will be interesting to see if I’m at all close.

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About Chris Russell

http://www.chrisrussell.net
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2 Responses to Crunching Soundrop’s April Track Numbers

  1. Olivier M says:

    Nice number crunching 🙂

  2. Thanks, Oliver!

    As I sit at my computer working I typically have Soundrop streaming in the background and have been keeping a loose watch in the total listener count. Adoption in North America seems less than in the EU (not surprising as Soundrop users are necessary Spotify users and Spotify only launched in the U.S. last year).

    This means that the listener counts drops off late in the afternoon Pacific time as people in the EU finally head to bed. 8-9 PM local Pacific time the count is at its lowest and starts to climb by 11-12 AM as the EU wakes up and goes to work and school.

    I’ve been seeing peaks as high as 17K (8 AM local Pacific time so early evening in the EU) and lows steady at ~8K listeners (8-9 PM local Pacific time).

    Unscientifically splitting the difference 12K active users on average would be a four-fold increase since the April press release and it’s still early in May. Given this, I think my 120M track estimate has already been surpassed… And, it’s only the second week of May.

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